Political betting sites intrade prediction

Narang added that while he had used InTrade personally, Tradeworx did not use the service in its strategy. Notably, the Obama contract did not have the inverse reaction. Obama contracts currently show odds of his re-election at about 57 percent, though his odds have waned from late September, when they exceeded 75 percent. Stock market traders are used to knee-jerk reactions to data and news, and how initial bounces can fade.

Obama and Romney contracts each get daily volume of about 50, to 60, shares, according to Wolfenden. The relatively slight volume can make it easier for individual investors to push prices around. On the other hand, Intrade contracts in leaned heavily in favor of Republicans retaining the Senate, only to see those contracts shift dramatically late on Election Day when it became apparent that Democrat James Webb was going to surprisingly defeat incumbent Republican George Allen in the Virginia Senate race.

That market has generally been more accurate than polls in a wide swath of executive, legislative, national and local elections. The betting markets are far from infallible. Most pollsters, meanwhile, accurately predicted both events. As everyone who has ever played the ponies knows, sometimes a long shot wins.

And Trump is hardly a long shot at this point in the campaign, and, of course, things could change quickly for many reasons including the outcomes of the remaining presidential debates. Interested in investing in the election markets? Full disclosure: I've placed wagers on a Clinton victory on this site. But the website, in the midst of a much-needed update, is a bit confusing to navigate opens in new tab.

Plus, you have to mail in a check before you can place a bet. Historically, gambling on election outcomes was common in the U. By the late s, semi-formal election markets operated, and newspapers published the odds daily. But in the s, New York City, where the election gambling was centered, cracked down on unauthorized gambling, and it went underground. Not that you should ignore the polls. My advice: To have the most accurate perspective on the race, consult PredictWise.

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That applies in two ways: offering a full gamut of bets and perhaps more importantly, offering them at bettor-friendly prices. Here again, political betting is a perfect example of that. While most bookies carry lines for, say, who wins the U. This is no small thing either because an underrated aspect of betting is maximizing value — which can quickly add up over a long enough time horizon. However, one of the sweetest treats is from MyBookie.

For bettors looking to wager on politics, it would be smart of you to redeem this type of deal around a key election. Because it offers a full-fledged rewards program. And like any loyalty program, the true value of it is accrued over the long term at GTBets.

Rewards points can be exchanged for a number of items — merchandise, sweepstake entries, but most important of all, cashback. Where does that popularity stem from? Welp, the site is flat-out good across the board. Back when Trump was President there were a number of special markets focused on his tenure. However, there are still markets centred around him and the royal family that could attract attention.

Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron are two popular figures. Boris Johnson and Victor Orban are somewhat darker figures, but they also get a few bets. In fact, the more prominent a world leader is, the more attention from sportsbook he draws. Tips on Making Your Bets Succeed To succeed as a political bettor, you need to make sure you understand the nature of the game.

In other words, political betting is a long-term activity and it requires a lot of understanding of current affairs. The same way you would follow sports because you like it, you should feel the same way about politics in general. According to some, the timing of the accusation cost her the election. Understand the electoral system — Gerrymandering is not sexy as it can throw quite a few upsets, for example. Therefore, understanding the specific electoral system is of utmost importance.

For instance, do you expect Biden to win by electoral college or popular vote? Timing — Clearly, the qualities and track record of a candidate matter a great deal, but at a time when populism is rising more vociferous candidates seem to be taking prevalence. Status of the party electing the candidate — Some parties are just chronically snubbed. Whether that is the United Front in France or Labor in the United Kingdom, there are times when certain parties are doomed to fail — time and again.

There are other moving parts to take into consideration as well. As one popular show has it — politics is a house of cards and even the slightest tremor can send the whole edifice down crashing. Yet, from the perspective of a political bettor, there are many opportunities that only the most talented bettors would see. Roughly the same advice applies to political betting as do to sports. Politics is a challenging enough activity. Allegiances shift, people tend to break their words and any development could be used by one party or another to score political points.

Media coverage also tends to be biased.