Picks for pga championship

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Top 10 lock -- Rory McIlroy: McIlroy is playing great from tee to green, but it's actually his touch around the greens that has caught my attention. He ranks No. I don't know that he's going to win, but I feel extremely confident that McIlroy is in for a big week.

Star who definitely won't win -- Jon Rahm: Picking Bryson DeChambeau or Tiger Woods would have been cheating here, so I'll go with Rahm, which might be flying a bit too close to the sun. From tee to green, he's been tremendous, but the short game has fallen off this year, and that's concerning going into a major championship that's going to demand a lot of it.

Surprise prediction -- Spieth's putter costs him: This won't be surprising to those who have been paying attention for the last few months, but if you haven't, you might be surprised to find out that Spieth is not a good putter right now.

Though he's going to hit the ball well, it's the magical Scotty Cameron that's going to let him down in his bid for the career slam. Tiger Woods prediction -- Finishes slightly better than at Augusta National: Big Cat created the bar at this year's Masters when he made the cut and finished in the top 50, and now that's what will rightly be expected going forward. I still don't think he has any chance of winning this championship, but he does look stronger and fitter than he did at the Masters, and I think the result will end up being a bit better as well.

Lowest round: 64 -6 Winner's Sunday score: 67 -3 Patrick McDonald, golf writer Winner — Hideki Matsuyama : Firm and fast conditions -- where iron play and around-the-green prowess are required -- scream Matsuyama to me. The key will be his putter -- as it so often is -- but these bent grass greens should be to his liking. He has nine top finishes in his last 10 major championship appearances and possesses one of the higher floors among the game's elites. Deki grabs major No.

Sleeper -- Talor Gooch : He's a former Oklahoma State Cowboy, so we have that narrative crossed off the list; but in all seriousness, Gooch's statistical profile should fit Southern Hills. A top-notch iron player and a capable scrambler, the year-old ranks seventh in this field in total strokes gained over his last 50 rounds.

He finished in a tie for 14th at Augusta National in his Masters debut and has played long difficult golf courses like Torrey Pines, Quail Hollow and Memorial Park well. Top 10 lock -- Dustin Johnson: I honestly like him to win, but Johnson will be the name at the top odds board, which will drift as the week progresses.

Patience is a virtue as no one will touch him when sandwiched between Collin Morikawa and Spieth. It's been a quiet year for the two-time major winner however that is not to say it has been an unproductive one. He is consistently a factor in the U. Open and this week should play like one. Star who definitely won't win -- Viktor Hovland: The term "star" implies a top player in the world, and Hovland is the one I'll be picking on.

Could he ball-strike his way to victory? Yet, when he inevitably does miss a green in regulation, his chipping deficiency will rear its ugly head. The world No. Surprise prediction -- Brooks Koepka contends for major No. In nine appearances, he has two wins, three top-fives and two top finishes. Injuries and final round woes are a concern but that hasn't stopped Koepka from contending in the past.

Tiger Woods prediction -- Misses the cut: This ought to go over well. The PGA Championship is far different from the Masters where only 70 players had a realistic chance to make the cut. I've read the quotes. I know he's getting "stronger. Since , he has missed the cut in four of eight major appearances when removing his play at Augusta.

Southern Hills is going to be a stern examination and I'm not sure Woods will convert enough momentum-saving pars to pass the test. Visit SportsLine now to see the projected PGA Championship leaderboard , all from the model that's nailed eight golf majors, including this year's Masters.

Kyle Boone, writer Winner -- Jon Rahm : Rahm hasn't quite played at the level this season that maybe he did the last few seasons, and yet … last we saw of him he was winning on Mexico's soil. He's still got it. He ranks first on the PGA Tour this season in strokes gained off the tee, which should serve him well at Southern Hills, and he should be in the mix down to the end if the other nuances of his game come together.

If I can bet on his putter to break through, I'll happily do that. Sleeper -- Jason Day : It's been a rollercoaster season for year-old Day, but he enters the week having played some really strong golf of late with two top finishes in his last three outings. He's been a notoriously fast starter in that span, too, and if he can continue that trend, it wouldn't be totally surprising to see him keep that pace up on a course that may be gettable with favorable conditions leading into the weekend.

Top 10 lock -- Scottie Scheffler: The tourney favorite? Winner in four of his last eight outings? Yes, please! Sure, it's probably a cop-out, but Scheffler feels like a lock to be in contention this week. He's said in the past that Southern Hills is one of his favorite courses, and it sets up well for him this week.

Star who definitely won't win -- Brooks Koepka: He's something of a wild card entering the week -- we've not seen him since the Masters -- but based upon that appearance, it's hard to feel confident in his chances this week. He turned in matching 75s and missed the cut at Augusta, and after that showing, it wouldn't be surprising to see him again this week eject before the weekend.

Surprise prediction -- Bryson DeChambeau makes the cut: He's coming off surgery, and who knows in what form he'll arrive back on the scene? Still, I can't imagine he'd dive back in -- even at a major -- unless he felt well enough to really compete. His distance off the tees could be a big edge on a course like Southern Hills, too. Tiger Woods prediction -- Finishes outside the top If we learned anything from his Masters appearance, it's that physically it gets more challenging for him as the week goes on.

I think he'll start strong and make the cut but again wear down as the weather warms up and as the grind of walking this course catches up to him. Guess what? If the short game complies, he's going to be in it. Top 10 lock -- Rory McIlroy: McIlroy is playing great from tee to green, but it's actually his touch around the greens that has caught my attention. He ranks No. I don't know that he's going to win, but I feel extremely confident that McIlroy is in for a big week.

Star who definitely won't win -- Jon Rahm: Picking Bryson DeChambeau or Tiger Woods would have been cheating here, so I'll go with Rahm, which might be flying a bit too close to the sun. From tee to green, he's been tremendous, but the short game has fallen off this year, and that's concerning going into a major championship that's going to demand a lot of it.

Surprise prediction -- Spieth's putter costs him: This won't be surprising to those who have been paying attention for the last few months, but if you haven't, you might be surprised to find out that Spieth is not a good putter right now. Though he's going to hit the ball well, it's the magical Scotty Cameron that's going to let him down in his bid for the career slam.

Tiger Woods prediction -- Finishes slightly better than at Augusta National: Big Cat created the bar at this year's Masters when he made the cut and finished in the top 50, and now that's what will rightly be expected going forward. I still don't think he has any chance of winning this championship, but he does look stronger and fitter than he did at the Masters, and I think the result will end up being a bit better as well.

Lowest round: 64 -6 Winner's Sunday score: 67 -3 Patrick McDonald, golf writer Winner — Hideki Matsuyama : Firm and fast conditions -- where iron play and around-the-green prowess are required -- scream Matsuyama to me. The key will be his putter -- as it so often is -- but these bent grass greens should be to his liking.

He has nine top finishes in his last 10 major championship appearances and possesses one of the higher floors among the game's elites. Deki grabs major No. Sleeper -- Talor Gooch : He's a former Oklahoma State Cowboy, so we have that narrative crossed off the list; but in all seriousness, Gooch's statistical profile should fit Southern Hills. A top-notch iron player and a capable scrambler, the year-old ranks seventh in this field in total strokes gained over his last 50 rounds.

He finished in a tie for 14th at Augusta National in his Masters debut and has played long difficult golf courses like Torrey Pines, Quail Hollow and Memorial Park well. Top 10 lock -- Dustin Johnson: I honestly like him to win, but Johnson will be the name at the top odds board, which will drift as the week progresses.

Patience is a virtue as no one will touch him when sandwiched between Collin Morikawa and Spieth. It's been a quiet year for the two-time major winner however that is not to say it has been an unproductive one. He is consistently a factor in the U. Open and this week should play like one. Star who definitely won't win -- Viktor Hovland: The term "star" implies a top player in the world, and Hovland is the one I'll be picking on.

Could he ball-strike his way to victory? Yet, when he inevitably does miss a green in regulation, his chipping deficiency will rear its ugly head. The world No. Surprise prediction -- Brooks Koepka contends for major No.

In nine appearances, he has two wins, three top-fives and two top finishes. Injuries and final round woes are a concern but that hasn't stopped Koepka from contending in the past. Tiger Woods prediction -- Misses the cut: This ought to go over well. The PGA Championship is far different from the Masters where only 70 players had a realistic chance to make the cut. I've read the quotes. I know he's getting "stronger.

Since , he has missed the cut in four of eight major appearances when removing his play at Augusta. Southern Hills is going to be a stern examination and I'm not sure Woods will convert enough momentum-saving pars to pass the test. Visit SportsLine now to see the projected PGA Championship leaderboard , all from the model that's nailed eight golf majors, including this year's Masters. Kyle Boone, writer Winner -- Jon Rahm : Rahm hasn't quite played at the level this season that maybe he did the last few seasons, and yet … last we saw of him he was winning on Mexico's soil.

He's still got it. He ranks first on the PGA Tour this season in strokes gained off the tee, which should serve him well at Southern Hills, and he should be in the mix down to the end if the other nuances of his game come together. If I can bet on his putter to break through, I'll happily do that. Sleeper -- Jason Day : It's been a rollercoaster season for year-old Day, but he enters the week having played some really strong golf of late with two top finishes in his last three outings.

He's been a notoriously fast starter in that span, too, and if he can continue that trend, it wouldn't be totally surprising to see him keep that pace up on a course that may be gettable with favorable conditions leading into the weekend. Top 10 lock -- Scottie Scheffler: The tourney favorite? Winner in four of his last eight outings? Yes, please! Sure, it's probably a cop-out, but Scheffler feels like a lock to be in contention this week. He's said in the past that Southern Hills is one of his favorite courses, and it sets up well for him this week.

Star who definitely won't win -- Brooks Koepka: He's something of a wild card entering the week -- we've not seen him since the Masters -- but based upon that appearance, it's hard to feel confident in his chances this week. He turned in matching 75s and missed the cut at Augusta, and after that showing, it wouldn't be surprising to see him again this week eject before the weekend. Surprise prediction -- Bryson DeChambeau makes the cut: He's coming off surgery, and who knows in what form he'll arrive back on the scene?

Still, I can't imagine he'd dive back in -- even at a major -- unless he felt well enough to really compete. His distance off the tees could be a big edge on a course like Southern Hills, too. Tiger Woods prediction -- Finishes outside the top If we learned anything from his Masters appearance, it's that physically it gets more challenging for him as the week goes on.

I think he'll start strong and make the cut but again wear down as the weather warms up and as the grind of walking this course catches up to him.