Sports betting probability theory formula

The probability of this outcome not occurring is the sum of Man Utd and a draw, or 0. Therefore the complete formula looks like: 0. If you calculate your own probability for a match that differs from the implied probability of the odds, you could see where to find a positive EV, and therefore the best chance to win.

For example, the odds imply that Wigan only have a 7. Calculating the EV of bets gives bettors more information about the value of their bookmaker. How bookmakers make money video explainer Found this article useful? Why not check out our video that details how to find value. Getting to Know Your Hit Rate In the first part of our basic probability section, we will talk about hit rates.

This is a term which is used to show how many successful wagers you have in relation to the amount of wagers you make in general. Hit rates are usually expressed as percentages. It should also be said that a high rate does not necessarily mean that you will increase your winnings in the long run. See what will we mean by going further down in our basic probability section. Now, imagine that you placed bets on the favourites in a total of 19 matches in the first stages of a soccer tournament.

That is pretty high. It looks like you could win a good profit, right? The truth is, any team that is expected to win a particular game is considered a favourite. Hence, the odds of that team winning will be low. As a result of that, winnings are low too. If the odds of your favourites winning were 1. However, we mentioned that you hypothetically lost four of the games. So, you have to calculate your losses too. We will add a few more issues to worry about in the next paragraphs of our section about basic probability.

When you think about it, it seems that although you won, you lost money because the profits returned were very small. This is not to say that you should not bet on the favourites, though. Our purpose is to illustrate how you can have a high hit rate and still generate smaller to no profits. The reason for this is that your chances of winning are not reflected by your high rate.

It serves to show how often you tend to make correct wagers. The quality of your bets is determined by value, and we will get to it in a few minutes, but first, we shall say a few things about probability. Understanding Probability Now, we are finally getting to explain what basic probability is and what role it plays in sports betting. By and large, this is a measure used to determine the likelihood of an outcome to happen.

It is displayed as a decimal. More often than not, it is expressed as numbers between 0 and 1, where 1 suggests certainty and 0 suggests impossibility. In addition, you might also encounter basic possibility expressed as a percentage. The former suggests certainty and the latter suggests impossibility.

There are many situations in which you can calculate basic probability very accurately. For example, let us have a look at a coin. You know that tossing it can only result in two outcomes: the coin will either come up heads, or it will come up tails.

This is quite easy to predict right? There is no way that another outcome occurs. It is the same with a roll of a dice. As you know, a die has six different sides, therefore six outcomes are possible when throwing it. There is an approximately Be it as it may, probability in sports betting is not as simple or as easy to determine quite like the Asian handicap. Given that there are numerous factors involved, there is no chance to measure the exact probability of a result. On the contrary, your calculations will be based on what you believe will happen during the game.

However, you, the bettor, are not the only one that does that. The bookmakers follow the same trend.

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Each event has a coefficient calculated based on statistical analysis. The value of the parameter decreases as the chance of a successful outcome increases, otherwise, the bookmaker will start working at a loss. Fundamentals And Patterns Probability theory is a part of mathematics that is focused on random events and quantities, as well as their properties. The role of this law in sports betting is difficult to underestimate. Randomness surrounds everyone daily.

And the theory can be applied to absolutely any event. Both direct and indirect factors can affect the final result of the game. Nobody can predict results with a complete guarantee. Even a bookie cannot predict the probable outcome of an event with a complete guarantee. The odds on display never reflect the true probability or chance of an event occurring or not occurring.

There is always a profit margin added by the bookmaker in these odds, which means that the payout to the successful punter is always less than what they should have received if the odds had reflected the true chances. The bookmaker needs to estimate the true probability or chance of an outcome correctly in order to set the odds on display in such a way that it profits the bookmaker regardless of an event outcome. This is because the odds on display are not fair odds.

The bookie has an edge built into the odds. According to a study published in the Journal of Gambling Studies, the more hands a player wins, the less money they are likely to collect, especially with respect to novice players. That is because multiple wins are likely to yield small stakes, for which you need to play more, and the more you play, the more likely you will eventually bear the brunt of occasional and substantial losses.

Behavioral economics comes into play here. A player continues playing the lottery , either in hopes of a big gain that would eventually offset the losses or the winning streak compels the player to keep playing. In both cases, it is not rational or statistical reasoning but the emotional high of a win that motivates them to play further.

Consider a casino. All of the details—including the game rules, music, controlled lighting effects, alcoholic beverages, and the interior decor—are carefully planned and designed to the house's advantage. The house wants you to stay and continue playing.

Naturally, the games offered by the casino have a built-in house edge, although the house advantage varies with the game.

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