Other Bets Props and Futures Some other fun bets that can be made on basketball include prop bets and futures. How To Bet News. Handicapping Your Basketball Bets When oddsmakers set the lines, they take many factors into consideration. If you have even one loss, you lose the entire bet. On the other hand the Magic must either win outright or lose by 3 or fewer points for a Magic spread bet to payout.
Because of this reason, waiting to enter a trade for too long results in missing out on most of the gain, whereas entering a trade too early can mean entering on a false signal and having to exit the position at a loss. To illustrate this moving average strategy we will use the 10 day, 20 day and 30 day simple moving averages as plotted in the chart below.
The duration and type of moving averages to be used depend on the time frames that the trader is looking to trade in. For shorter time frames one hour bars or faster , the exponential moving average is preferred due to its tendency to follow the price curve closely e. For longer time frames daily or weekly bars , traders prefer using simple moving averages e.
The red line represents the fast moving average 10 day SMA , the green line represents the medium moving average 20 day SMA and the purple line represents the slow moving average 30 day SMA. A signal to sell is triggered when the fast moving average crosses below both the medium and the slow moving averages. This shows a short term shift in the trend, i. The signal to sell is confirmed when the medium moving average crosses below the slow moving average, the shift in momentum is considered to be more significant when the medium 20 day moving average crosses below the slow 30 day moving average.
The triple moving average crossover system generates a signal to sell when the slow moving average is above the medium moving average and the medium moving average is above the fast moving average. When the fast moving average goes above the medium moving average, the system exits its position. For this reason, unlike the dual moving average trading system, the triple moving average system is not always in the market.
The system is out of the market when the relationship between the slow and medium moving averages do not match that between the medium and fast moving averages. More aggressive traders would not wait for the confirmation of the trend and instead enter into a position based on the fast moving average crossing over the slow and medium moving averages.
One may also enter positions at different times, for example, the trader could take a certain number of long positions when the fast MA crosses above the medium MA, then take up the next set of long positions when the fast MA crosses above the slow MA. Finally more long positions when the medium crosses over the slow MA. If at any time a reversal of trend is observed he may exit his position. This moving average strategy is created by placing a large number of moving averages onto the same chart the chart shown below uses 8 simple moving averages.
One must factor in the time horizons and investment objectives while selecting the lengths and type of moving averages. When all the moving averages move in the same direction, the trend is said to be strong. Trading signals are generated in a similar manner to the triple moving average crossover system, the trader must decide the number of crossovers to trigger a buy or sell signal. Traders look to buy when the faster moving averages cross above the slower moving averages and look to sell when the faster moving averages cross below the slower moving averages.
It is a collection of three time series calculated as moving averages from historical price data, most often closing prices. The MACD line is the difference between a fast short term exponential moving average and a slow long term exponential moving average of the closing price of a particular security.
The signal line is the exponential moving average of the MACD line. In this moving average strategy, the trader looks for crossovers between the MACD and the signal line. The MACD strategy is denoted by the three parameters which define the strategy, i. There are many different interpretations of the MACD chart.
When the MACD line crosses above the signal line, it is recommended to buy the underlying security and when the MACD line crosses below the signal line, a signal to sell is triggered. These events are taken as signs that the trend in the underlying security is about to escalate in the direction of the crossover. Another crossover that is taken into consideration by traders is called the zero crossover.
This occurs when the slow and fast moving averages of the price curve crossover each other, or when the MACD series changes sign. A change from positive to negative is considered to be a bearish sign while a change from negative to positive is considered as a bullish sign. The zero crossover provides confirmation about a change in trend but it is less reliable in triggering signals than the signal crossover. Traders also monitor the divergence between the MACD line and the signal line, which can be observed through the histogram.
When the histogram starts falling moves towards the zero line , it indicates that the trend is weakening, this happens when the MACD and signal lines are converging. Whereas, when the signal line and MACD line are diverging, or the histogram is rising moves away from the zero line , it is an indication that the trend is growing stronger. Advantages of using moving averages in trading The known advantages of using moving averages in trading are: You can trade on the basis of the trends in the market.
With the analysis, you can find if it is an uptrend the price moves above the moving average or a downtrend the price moves below the moving average. With a lot of other factors in consideration such as the length of the trading period, moving average crossover, etc. You can also find entry points when the prices are strongly trending. The moving average trading helps to level the price data over a specified period by creating a constantly updated average price.
Hence, the indicator is responsive to new and updated information which means better predictions. Disadvantages of using moving averages in trading Now we will discuss some disadvantages of moving average trading that you can weigh against the advantages for a successful trading experience. Here are some disadvantages of moving average trading: If the price action becomes fluctuating, the price may swing back and forth, generating multiple trend reversals or trade signals.
When this occurs, it's best to step aside or utilise another indicator to help clarify the trend. The same thing can occur with moving average crossovers. Moving averages work quite well in strong trending conditions but poorly in fluctuating or ranging conditions. Adjusting the time frame can help with this problem temporarily, though, at some point, these issues are likely to occur regardless of the time frame chosen for the moving averages.
Moving average trading does not work in sideways market. In case of a sideways market, the price of a security trades within a fairly stable range without forming any particular trends for some period of time. In a sideways market, the moving averages may generate false signals because of overlapping of price line.
You can avoid moving average trading during the situations mentioned above in which moving average trading is not as successful. FAQs Which moving average is best for trading? You would enter a trade when a trend reversal occurs, which is indicated when one group crosses over the other group.
The twelve periods used are 3, 5, 8, 10, 12, 15, 30, 35, 40, 45, 50, and Trend reversals and continuations can be identified with these two groups of EMAs. How to Identify Trend Strength The degree of separation between the short- and long-term moving averages can be used as an indicator of trend strength. How to Identify Trend Reversals The crossover of the short- and long-term moving averages represents trend reversals.
If the short-term EMAs cross ABOVE the long-term moving averages, this is known as a bullish crossover and indicates that a bullish reversal has occurred. How to Identify a Lack of Trend When the moving averages between the two groups are close together and approximately parallel, it indicates that the short-term market sentiment and long-term trend are largely in agreement.
Basically, when both groups of EMAs are moving horizontally, or mostly moving sideways and heavily intertwined, it means the price lacks a trend. Looking at the chart above, notice how when the red and blue group of EMAs are intertwined, price is directionless, simply moving up and down within a range. This current price action is more suitable for range trading. As a trend trader, it would make sense to sit out and wait for better conditions. During a strong uptrend , when the short-term MAs move back toward the longer-term MAs, but do NOT cross, and then start to move back higher, this signals another continuation of the bullish trend and triggers a buy signal.
Also, after a crossover, if prices fall back and then bounces off from the longer-term EMAs, this signals a continuation of the bullish trend and triggers a buy signal. During a strong downtrend , when the short-term MAs move back toward the longer-term MAs, but do NOT cross, and then start to move lower, this signals a continuation of the bearish trend and triggers a sell signal. Also, after a bearish crossover, if the price rises but then bounces off from the long-term EMAs, this signals a continuation of the bearish trend and triggers a sell signal.
No Signal The buy and sell signals above should be avoided when the price and the EMAs are moving sideways. Following a consolidation period, wait for a crossover and separation. If there is no trend, this indicator will not work.
When compression of both groups of moving averages occurs on the same candlestick, this could indicate an overall trend change. Place a buy stop order above the high and sell stop order below the low of the candlestick. Notice how the last candle opened below all moving averages and managed to close above all moving averages. This can be interpreted as the price being able to close above a resistance level the compressed EMAs. In the next candle, the price rises which triggers the buy stop order.
The previous sell stop order now becomes your initial stop loss.
Closing prices are commonly used in the calculation but the open, high, low, or median price is often applied as a substitute. The indicator is a highly-effective technical tool used to evaluate the strength of the current trend and to determine if an established trend will continue or reverse. The SMA is less effective for prediction in sideways and rangebound markets. The calculation simply sums up prices over the chosen period and divides by that period.
Each data point adds to a line placed in the same panel as price. Interactions between price and the moving average generate bullish and bearish divergences that evaluate trend strength and direction. For example, price falling below a day SMA in an established uptrend denotes unusual weakness while price lifting above the day SMA in a downtrend denotes unusual strength. The direction of the SMA also generates a divergence when opposing price action. The Exponential Moving Average EMA measures the average price across a range of price bars chosen by the technician, placing greater weight on more recent data points.
This moving average responds more quickly to recent price action than the simple moving average, theoretically generating earlier buy and sell signals. The calculation assumes that recent price action will have a greater impact on trend direction than an equally weighted data series. However, this weighting also tends to generate more false signals than the SMA. Examining several EMAs at different time intervals can overcome the shortcomings of this moving average but the added complexity requires stronger interpretation skills.
The day, day, and day EMA combination has grown popular among traders in recent decades. The direction of the EMA and its relative positioning with price generate convergence-divergence relationships that are useful in trade management. The quality of trend strength should correlate strongly with the persistence of the trend and capacity to generate profits for the trend-following trader or investor.
ADX uses moving averages in several time frames to generate three lines that cross higher or lower through a panel with values between 0 and ADX with values at or below 25 denotes a weak trend or rangebound market, lowering the reliability of this trend-following strategy. ADX direction also generates momentum signals, with a trend gathering strength when rising and losing strength when falling.
MACD analyzes the relationship between moving averages set at different intervals, generating a set of directional lines or a histogram that gauges current momentum and price direction. MACD emits an assortment of visual data that generates crossovers, divergences, and sharp directional swings.
A bullish divergence occurs when the histogram turns higher at an extreme below a zero line while price is falling and a bearish divergence when the histogram turns lower at an extreme above a zero line while price is rising. Crossovers above and below the zero line can also generate potent buy and sell signals. However, signals are only applicable within the time setting applied to the indicator.
Indicator data points generate dots above or below price on the main chart panel. The indicator often generates reliable signals in strong trends and whipsaws in rangebound markets. Parabolic SAR is most useful when analyzed in combination with the overall price pattern and other trend-following indicators. The trader or investor can also use the indicator as a tool to manage long and short positions, raising or lowering the stop loss after each data point to match the price of the last dot.
Keep in mind this indicator issues continuous buy or sell signals, forcing the technician to look at other data to avoid over-trading. An exponentially weighted moving average reacts more significantly to recent price changes than a simple moving average simple moving average SMA , which applies an equal weight to all observations in the period. While there are many possible choices for the smoothing factor, the most common choice is:.
That gives the most recent observation more weight. If the smoothing factor is increased, more recent observations have more influence on the EMA. Suppose that you want to use 20 days as the number of observations for the EMA. Then, you must wait until the 20th day to obtain the SMA. The calculation for the SMA is straightforward. It is simply the sum of the stock's closing prices during a time period, divided by the number of observations for that period.
For example, a day SMA is just the sum of the closing prices for the past 20 trading days, divided by Finally, the following formula is used to calculate the current EMA:. For example, an There are also slight variations of the EMA arrived at by using the open, high, low, or median price instead of using the closing price. The and day exponential moving averages EMAs are often the most quoted and analyzed short-term averages. In general, the and day EMAs are used as indicators for long-term trends.
When a stock price crosses its day moving average, it is a technical signal that a reversal has occurred. Traders who employ technical analysis find moving averages very useful and insightful when applied correctly. However, they also realize that these signals can create havoc when used improperly or misinterpreted.
Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness, and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. All our partners or affiliated companies are in no way associated with the proprietary information provided by the Ninjacators LLC method or software.
All returns are based on buy side analysis and do not include commission costs. All projections are based on current returns. The projections do not account for any possible draw down effects on performance and performance projections. Actual returns and projected returns may fluctuate over the course of the service. Any person who chooses to use this information as a basis for their trading assumes all the liability and risk for themselves and hereby and absolutely agrees to indemnify and hold harmless Ninjacators, LLC, its principals, agents, and employees.
Testimonials Disclaimer: Testimonials appearing on Ninjacators. CFTC Rules 4. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity.
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