Other Bets Props and Futures Some other fun bets that can be made on basketball include prop bets and futures. How To Bet News. Handicapping Your Basketball Bets When oddsmakers set the lines, they take many factors into consideration. If you have even one loss, you lose the entire bet. On the other hand the Magic must either win outright or lose by 3 or fewer points for a Magic spread bet to payout.
As a trader, you need to think differently. Price and patterns change all the time and if everyone is trying to trade the same way on the same patterns, the big players will use that to their advantage. This is maybe one of the most misunderstood price action secrets. Stop looking for shortcuts and do not wait for textbook patterns — learn to think and trade like a pro. Sellers bet on falling prices and push the price down with their selling interest.
If one side is stronger than the other, the financial markets will see the following trends emerging: If there are more buyers than sellers, or more buying interest than selling interest, the buyers do not have anyone they can buy from. The prices then increase until the price becomes so high that the sellers once again find it attractive to get involved.
At the same time, the price is eventually too high for the buyers to keep buying. However, if there are more sellers than buyers, prices will fall until a balance is restored and more buyers enter the market. The greater the imbalance between these two market players, the faster the movement of the market in one direction. However, if there is only a slight overhang, prices tend to change more slowly.
When the buying and selling interests are in equilibrium, there is no reason for the price to change. Both parties are satisfied with the current price and there is a market balance. It is always important to keep this in mind because any price analysis aims at comparing the strength ratio of the two sides to evaluate which market players are stronger and in which direction the price is, therefore, more likely to move.
Wicks that stick out to the downside typically signal rejection and failed bearish attempts. Bodies that close near the top often signal bullish pressure. It does not make any difference to your overall trading although time frames such as the 4H or daily will look different on different brokers.
The graphic below illustrates what we mean. The charts show the same market and the same period and both are 4H time frames. They used different closing times for their candles and, thus, the charts look slightly different. Some of the important clues that the left market shows are not visible on the right chart and vice versa. It is very easy for the professional trader to estimate where the amateur traders enter trades and place stops when a price action pattern forms.
This is one of those price action secrets that can make a huge difference and we have seen that many of our students have turned their trading completely around with it. These can include trend lines, horizontal areas and even patterns such as ascending and descending channels. I wrote an entire lesson on drawing key levels.
Once you have identified the critical areas on your chart, it becomes a waiting game. Step 2: Wait for the daily session to close Patience is important here. In order to trade the daily time frame, you need to wait for the session to close. Which session am I referring to?
I trade New York close charts. That means each hour period closes at 5 pm EST. Not all Forex brokers offer this type of chart. Step 3: Watch for price action buy and sell signals Want to know my two favorite price action signals? When it comes to candlestick patterns, the pin bar is my favorite and the engulfing pattern is a close second. The two share more in common than you may know. More on this later. The pin bar is a candlestick with a long upper or lower wick , also called the tail.
When buyers push the market back above key support, it suggests an increase in demand. The same goes for a pin bar that occurs at resistance. But in this case, that long upper wick signals an increase in supply. When trading price action, you want to look for bullish pin bars at support and bearish pin bars at resistance. Both signals above offered incredibly favorable risk to reward ratios.
Notice how long the wicks are compared to the surrounding price action. Although different in shape, the engulfing signal is similar to the pin bar in that it suggests an increase in supply or demand. The engulfing candlestick is an excellent way to identify exhaustion within a trend. There is some controversy as to whether the body of the engulfing bar must completely engulf the previous candle.
I have been trading these patterns for more than seven years, and in my experience, it makes no difference. This is why I mentioned that the two patterns share more in common than you may realize. These individuals are looking for a way to spot trends and reversals. Well, guess what? Simple price action is all you need. Those momentum indicators give off a lot of false positives. In other words, they will signal that a market is changing direction when it actually has no intention of doing so.
This is where you can use Forex price action to evaluate the momentum. That said, I have found it to be the most reliable way to analyze momentum. The amount of time between these points can range from a few weeks to a few months. Perform this exercise for the last six months or so.
Once complete, you will begin to see a pattern. You want to be a buyer here. You want to be a seller here. These swing highs and lows often form a trend line.
All the professional traders trade the market with a strong knowledge of fundamental, technical and sentiment analysis. Though there are many different types of trading strategy in the forex market price action trading strategy is considered to be the most reliable trading strategy to the professional trader.
By using this strategy you will never have to worry about the potential false signal in the market as the indicator based traders do. But mastering the art of price action trading strategy requires an extreme level of patience and dedications. As a new trader you will have some hard time in understanding the basics pattern of the price action confirmation signal but if you remain focus over the course of time you will be able to filter the best possible trade in the market.
Use the daily chart: All the professional traders use the daily chart and the higher time frame to take their trade in the market. They always make sure that they are trading along with the long term prevailing trend in the market. In order to survive the dynamic market world, you always need to make sure that you are using the higher time frame in your analysis and trading the key support and resistance level in the market.
Most of the retail traders fail to make money in forex trading since they plan their trade in the lower time frame in the market. But trading the lower time frame will give you lots of false signal in the market. If you see the smaller time frame then you will see most of the time the market is giving you false signal and even the price action signals are not giving an accurate entry point to the traders.
So if you truly want to find the best trading spot in the market then make sure that you are using the higher time frame in your technical analysis. Know the fundamental factors: their many traders who often trade the financial instrument based on their technical analysis section only. But in order to take the best trade in the market, you need to execute the trading orders based on the major three types of analysis in the market.
Fundamental analysis is often considered to be the most advanced form of analysis in the forex trading world since it deals with macroeconomics. In order to filter the best possible trade in the market, it is extremely necessary for you to know at which point the price is most likely to reverse its direction in the market.
In the eyes of trained professional fundamental analysis is often considered to be the most powerful price driving catalyst in the forex market. The legs often subdivide into smaller legs. Wedges are rarely perfect, and most do not look like a textbook wedge. If a bear channel has 3 legs down, even if the channel does not have a wedge shape, view it as a wedge.
The same forces are at work. The market is trying to go down repeatedly, but keeps reversing up. At some point, traders decide it needs to try the other direction up. If there are 3 surges in a tight bull channel, the channel is a parabolic wedge. This is a buy climax and it can lead to a trading range, or even a bear trend reversal, like here. Channels The market is always in channels.
Sometimes traders have to look at a higher time frame chart to see them. Most are not what textbooks and websites describe as channels. However, traders know what channels really look like and they are very flexible when they choose points to draw lines. Once they see two points, they draw a line and watch to see if the market reverses if it get back to the line.
They are constantly erasing lines that the market is ignoring and are always drawing new ones. Every market is always in a channel. Sometimes it is clearer on a smaller or higher time frame chart. Traders look to enter on reversals since reversals are more common that breakouts.
A micro channel is a series of bars without a pullback. It is a strong trend, but once it reaches about 10 bars, it is unsustainable. It therefore is also a climax. A climax typically evolves into a trading range. It is difficult to see because the rally that followed a breakout above the bull channel has been huge. Measured moves The market often tries to do something twice. The result is that most tops are variations of double tops, most bottoms are variations of double bottoms, and trends often have at least a second leg with the size of the second leg related to that of the first leg.
This i, where the market has a second leg that is almost identical to the length of the first. Also, traders look for a measured move after a breakout from a trading range. They expect the move to be about the same size as the trading range is tall. The are many other types of measured moves that the computers use to either take profits or to enter reversal trades, and several are based on intraday gaps, or the height of breakouts.
When there is a pullback from a trend, the trend typically resumes. The 2nd leg is frequently very close in size to the 1st leg. Traders look to sell a reversal down for a test of the Measured Move target. When there is a breakout, the trend often continues for a measured move based on the height of the earlier range. Traders buy the bull trend and any pullback. They especially like a pullback that tests the breakout point, but then reverses back up. Trading range reversals Even before a trading range is obvious, the market usually has signs of two-sided trading that alert traders to a possible trading range day.
When that is the case, the market often races to the top with enough momentum to make traders erroneously believe that they can buy a small pullback and reasonably expect a second leg up. Similarly, they see a big bear trend bar at the bottom and then begin to sell bounces because they do not understand what is actually happening. The market regularly gets vacuumed to the top, where bulls take profits instead of buying more, and the bears appear out of nowhere.
Both the bulls and bears expect the test of resistance to lead to a failed breakout. The opposite is true at the bottom. When the market gets near support, bear scalpers sell even more, expecting the market to fall just a little more. Bulls stop buying because they are confident that the market will reach the support and probably poke through it. Why buy now when they can buy lower in a few minutes? The result is that the market creates strong bear bars at the bottom as it is vacuumed down to support.
Instead of follow-through selling, buyers come. The bears buy to take profits and the bulls buy to initiate longs. The legs up and down in a trading range are often strong. When they are, traders have a higher probability of making money if they wait for a 2nd signal. When traders start out, they often do not realize that the market is forming a trading range until the day is over.
The bars often give early signs, as they did here. There were many bars with prominent tails, lots of pullbacks, yesterday ended in a tight trading range markets have inertia and tend to continue what they have been doing , and few areas of 2 or 3 consecutive big trend bars. This means that the bulls and bears were disappointed by the follow-through. Beginners feel confused and disappointed by the repeated reversals, not realizing that these feelings are the hallmarks of trading ranges.
When experienced traders detect those feelings, they look at them as opportunities. They bet that every breakout will reverse and they look to buy low, sell high, and scalp. Even when the market trended down at midday, they expected the breakout to the new low of the day to fail. They bought the reversal up, betting that the rally would get back above the breakout point the low of the first hour and back into the trading range. Opening reversals The components of an opening reversal pattern are: Usually fast move to a magnet support or resistance Reversal in 1st 60 — 90 minutes that leads to a swing for the next few hours or the entire day Most strong bull trend bars on the daily chart have at least a small tail on the bottom, which is usually caused by an opening reversal a selloff on the open that reverses up, and it is therefore a reversal pattern.
Similarly, most bear trend bars on the daily chart usually have a tail on top caused by an opening reversal down. There was a huge selloff on the open. The market rallied for the rest of the day. After a gap up, the market pulled back to the 20 bar EMA. The reversal up was the 3rd rally attempt and therefore this Opening Reversal was a wedge bull flag test of the EMA.
Whenever there is a gap down, traders will watch for a double top bear flag around the EMA. They will sell the reversal down, hoping for an early high of the day and a bear trend. Magnets support and resistance The final pattern in my 10 best price action trading patterns is more of a concept than a setup. The market is always testing as it tries to establish a price range.
It usually cannot tell if it has gone far enough up or down until it goes too far. Support is any price below the market where buyers might come in, as either bulls buy to create new longs or bears buy to take profits. Resistance is any price above the market where bulls might take profits on longs and bears might short. Common magnets include the tops and bottoms of trading ranges, prior highs and lows, trend lines, channels, measured move projections, and moving averages.
Computers control the market, and all support and resistance is based on things that computer programs can calculate. The result is that the market often accelerates near the target once a substantial number of algorithms believe that the target will be reached. When a market breaks above a prior high, it often pulls back to test that breakout point.
Bulls will buy a reversal up. A trading range day often oscillates around the open all day. If the market is near the high or low of the day in the final 2 hours, look for a reversal toward the open. Most trading range days end the day around the open. Beginner gets upset by strong rally suddenly becoming endless bear trend. Experienced trader knows where resistance is and looks for a reversal down. Any strong rally to resistance can simply be a buy vacuum test of the resistance.
References Brooks, Al ISBN Brooks, Al Chicago Board of Trade Commodity trading manual 9th ed. London: Fitzroy Dearborn Publishers. Livermore, Jesse Lauriston How to trade in stocks. Murphy, John J. Technical analysis of the financial markets : a comprehensive guide to trading methods and applications 2nd ed.
New York [u. Neill, Humphrey B.