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The FCL should help replenish foreign exchange liquidity and allow Chile to avoid external debt issuance ahead of the upcoming constitutional reform referendum in early September. While the new IMF arrangement is not a panacea to the potential political crisis, it should serve as an important backstop to help boost market confidence during a period of heightened risk.
It is at this event, typically held once every five years, that President Xi Jinping is expected to officially secure an unprecedented third five-year term. However, it is unlikely that President Xi will announce a potential successor at the congress. Thus far, no apparent political heir has emerged, which is likely by design, as it allows Xi to preserve his influence for years to come. Big Hike in Hungary The National Bank of Hungary NBH made another aggressive hike with a bp increase in its base rate, and matched the move in the weekly deposit rate.
The base rate now stands at These two factors will be the key determinants of the end of the tightening cycle, according to the NBH. In contrast, regional peers in Czech Republic and Poland reiterated this week their plan to stop or slow rate hikes as the energy crisis in Europe is expected to stifle growth. The NBH also announced a set of measures to substantially cut excess liquidity of the forint and help support the currency. Many emerging markets central banks have been proactively tightening monetary policy since early , contributing to multi-year highs in local rates.
As a general rule, local yield curves tend to peak when the terminal rate has been reached. We believe several large emerging markets countries comprising nearly half of the local debt investment universe—Brazil, Chile, Czech Republic, Colombia, Hungary, Mexico, Peru, and Poland—will likely reach terminal rates by the end of As a result, we expect to see an increasing number of attractive opportunities to add local duration exposure in emerging markets local markets in the coming months.
The news comes amid an ongoing saga between regulators, which has led to great uncertainty over the future of more than US-listed Chinese companies and even the potential delisting of some Chinese stocks. Per the new agreement, China has agreed to allow the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board inspectors to access audit work papers and personnel of US-listed companies, with the first audits expected to occur as early as mid-September.
The latest efforts harken back to the days of investment-driven growth and economic stimulus during the global financial crisis. Policy leaders are trying to walk an economic tightrope—unveiling government stimulus and looser monetary policy to moderate slowing growth, while avoiding taking on much more debt.
These measures are likely to put pressure on the Egyptian pound in the near term, but should contribute to progress toward exchange rate flexibility, consistent with International Monetary Fund IMF guidance. Bank Indonesia Surprises with a Hike Bank Indonesia BI raised its key policy rate by 25 basis points, one month earlier than consensus expectations. Current Governor of Bank Indonesia Perry Warjiyo talked down the pressure to hike rates just days earlier and the statement continued to send mixed signals.
Given that the central bank meets monthly, we expect these hikes to be gradual. Nearly all asset classes suffered significant losses through the first several months of , but the underperformance across emerging markets assets was particularly acute due to a toxic combination of high inflation, slowing growth, monetary tightening, and the war in Ukraine.
Over the past month, however, emerging markets assets have enjoyed a bounce thanks to an improvement in risk appetite on signs that inflation may have peaked and reduced expectations of Fed tightening. The key question is whether this rebound is sustainable. To a large extent, much will depend on whether the Fed is able to engineer a soft landing in the United States.
We believe it is still premature to declare victory in the war on inflation or rule out the possibility of recession. That said, emerging markets valuations remain historically reasonably priced, and we see select opportunities for attractive risk-adjusted returns in certain parts of the asset class. What Happened Last Week The news behind the headlines: our perspective on key events in EM Beijing Aims to Support Property Sector as Public Grows Weary In an effort to shore up economic growth, reports surfaced that the Chinese government may order state-run companies to guarantee some renminbi-denominated debt issued by troubled real estate developers.
As the government has focused on reducing excess leverage in the economy, investors questioned whether cash-strapped developers would be able to deliver on pre-sold homes amid a liquidity crunch. Policy leaders have eased lending requirements and have lowered interest rates in a bid to support the struggling industry.
Recently, in an act of public defiance across more than Chinese cities, hundreds of thousands of homeowners have refused to make mortgage payments on pre-sold homes. In July, regulators issued another round of fines on Tencent as well as a range of other firms for failing to comply with anti-monopoly transaction disclosure laws.
The Meituan divestment marks the third-major sale in for Tencent, which has already exited large stakes in e-commerce companies JD. The reshuffle at the central bank is likely to bring important changes and may be a prelude to a shift in monetary policy. For example, further currency depreciation and more aggressive rate hikes could more closely align Egypt with the International Monetary Fund.
The lira weakened to near all-time lows versus the US dollar following the announcement. Instead of raising rates to fight inflation like nearly all other central banks across the globe, the CBRT has opted to experiment with macroprudential measures to slow loan growth and interventions to protect domestic savers from lira weakness.
Term premiums have collapsed across emerging markets over the past few months and yield curves are inverted in a number of countries, including Brazil, Chile, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Mexico, Poland, and Turkey. A weakening outlook for economic growth has helped hold down long-term rates while short-term rates have risen as central banks continue to hike.
Tightening cycles in emerging markets are more advanced than in developed markets, and as such, the outlook for local rates is turning more positive. For example, with its rate hike last week, Banco Central do Brasil has now raised rates a total of Brazil is now likely nearing the end of its tightening cycle and may soon shift focus to stimulating growth.
In short, the outlook for local rates is improving in parts of Latin America and Europe, where we expect to see peak inflation in the coming months, the policy cycle is more advanced, and policy rates are at or close to the terminal rate. On the other hand, the local rate outlook is more mixed across Asia, where central banks are generally earlier in the cycle and are not near the end, despite easing commodity prices.
While the exercises may have ceased for now, we could expect an increase in cross-strait tensions and further strain on US-China relations. Foreign shows of support for Taiwan will likely bring stronger military responses than in the past. And although China is unlikely to regularly conduct missile tests near Taiwan, or routinely close nearby waters to commercial traffic, such actions will become less unusual.
The jump in prices was primarily driven by a surge in pork and vegetable prices, which advanced Overall food prices posted a fourth-straight month of gains and made their largest move since September , jumping 6. While prices were expected to rise across the board, weak consumer demand because of sporadic lockdowns around China kept them in check.
The 2. Bond prices remain deeply distressed at around 20 cents on the dollar. Reluctant Liftoff in Thailand The Bank of Thailand BOT raised the benchmark policy rate for the first time since , and signaled a steady, measured approach to future hikes. Consistent with its guidance over the past few months, the BOT raised the one-day repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 0.
We expect the BOT to take a data-dependent approach going forward, although US Fed tightening and recent weakness in the baht may add pressure to hike. Inflation Tumbles in Brazil Recent tax cuts on fuel and electricity helped prices fall by 0. This better news underpinned the modest deceleration in underlying inflation, even if services remain resilient.
In these previous cycles, the corresponding emerging markets equity price recorded either a similar, or a smaller, decline than the forward EPS decline. The equity price decline in the current downgrade cycle has already exceeded the median decline, creating a buffer for additional downgrades.
The bill specifies that semiconductor producers accepting American subsidies would not be able to expand advanced defined as circuits smaller than 28 nanometers chip manufacturing in China for 10 years. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, both leading Korean chipmakers, are re-evaluating their investments in China and leaning toward new plans for the United States. Samsung and Intel are also in the early stages of building semiconductor plants in the United States.
In focusing US restrictions on newer generations of semiconductors, however, the legislation could leave the door open for China to dominate the production of older chips that are used in cars and other consumer products. Since the BCB began tightening last March, it has raised its policy rate a cumulative The committee left the door open for the possibility of a smaller hike in September, just ahead of the October presidential election. Whether this was the last hike or not is less relevant to investors than the dovish signals sent by the BCB.
The lira has been the worst-performing emerging markets currency so far this year, as the central bank has refused to raise interest rates and has instead relied on unorthodox measures in an attempt to curb credit demand and tame inflation. However, the growth differential between emerging markets and the United States has widened in favor of emerging markets, where downward revisions have been less severe.
Emerging markets central banks are well ahead of developed markets in their rate hike cycles, so their domestic economies have already felt the pain of monetary tightening. And as demand cools, these countries will likely have more room to ease rates and stimulate domestic demand.
Why does this growth differential matter? It tends to be a major driver of the performance of emerging markets assets, and the convergence between developed and emerging markets growth over the past decade is a key reason for the underperformance of emerging markets assets over this period.
The dual listing status change will allow the company to broaden its investor base in that mainland Chinese investors will be allowed to purchase the Hong Kong-listed security through the Hong Kong Stock Connect program. This expected boost in liquidity could help offset any potential loss in liquidity if the company is forced to delist its US security next year as part of the ongoing discussions over granting the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board access to the audit papers of US-listed Chinese companies.
Beijing hopes that the bailout will lift China out of a property slump that has weighed on growth, which has risen year over year by a mere 0. Recently, protests have erupted in China after multiple developers defaulted on domestic and foreign debts following tighter credit controls from Beijing, leaving millions of homebuyers in limbo. The bailout package comes as Chinese governing bodies have tried to boost buyer demand through interest rate cuts and purchase subsidies.
However, looks can be deceiving. Most of the monthly deceleration was due to a 1. Unfortunately, headline inflation remains resilient as six of the nine categories of goods and services included in the inflation basket rose in the first half of July. Tunisians Approve Consolidating Presidential Power Tunisians approved constitutional changes that solidify the concentration of power that President Kais Saied instituted over the past year.
Tunisia is where the Arab Spring uprisings began in and, more than a decade later, is the only democracy to survive the revolts that swept through the region. However, precisely one year to the day from when President Saied dissolved parliament and dismissed the prime minister, the new amendments have given him near absolute power.
The vote was highly divisive despite the support of July Week Of 25 July Chart of the Week EM Corporate Balance Sheets Look Resilient Although the global macro backdrop has grown more challenging, emerging markets corporate fundamentals remain resilient on the whole, and valuations have adjusted favorably. Inflationary pressures and central banks raising rates into a slower global growth environment will mean rising input costs and falling revenues and profits for many companies.
However, most corporates are entering this environment from a position of balance sheet strength, which should help them weather the storm without sustaining material credit deterioration. Leverage has decreased from levels across all regions with net leverage falling to around 1. Thus, we would not expect a mild slowdown to push leverage to uncomfortable levels.
Earnings margins are near the highest levels since , and many issuers have strong liquidity profiles, in our view. Additionally, some companies, such as commodity producers, may in fact benefit from higher inflation. Consequently, we expect corporate fundamentals to remain resilient. What Happened Last Week The news behind the headlines: our perspective on key events in EM Russia Partially Reopens Gas Pipeline to Europe European nations breathed a sigh of relief after Russia announced a partial reopening of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, following a day maintenance period.
Politicians were worried that Russia would not turn the pipeline back on after the outage, adding further pressure to energy prices in Europe. The resolution should open a path for its shares to be listed in Hong Kong. This marked the biggest increase since September and aligns the SARB with other global central banks that are unleashing the most aggressive tightening of monetary policy in a generation to cool surging inflation.
The decision for such a bold hike was likely driven by recent weakness in the rand and inflation that has surprised to the upside for the past two months. The accompanying statement was also rather hawkish, pointing to the need for decisive action given the simultaneous acceleration in both headline and core CPI, and indicating that price stability will be prioritized over preserving growth.
The move helped stabilize the rand and should support the long end of the local yield curve. Week Of 18 July Chart of the Week Risk Premiums on the Rise The risk premium investors demand to own emerging markets bonds continues to increase, especially for the countries with the weakest balance sheets. This marks the third time in the past 19 years when high yield spreads have reached these levels, having also done so during the global financial crisis and the COVID pandemic sell-off.
This group is composed of 25 countries, including some such as Turkey that formerly had an investment grade rating. In response, the government mandated testing for more than six million residents in the southern Chinese city of Guangzhou as well as further compulsory testing in Shanghai, which recently came out of a two-month lockdown that weighed on growth.
Summary: Redesigning U. Army land power for the twenty-first century will require policy makers and defense leaders to negotiate numerous conflicting dynamics. Future U. Army forces will need to be immediately ready for crises but also adaptable. They will need to be powerful enough for major combat operations and organizationally flexible, but also tailored to missions and tasks.
Text: The principles that have historically guided U. Army force planning—size, mix, and distribution—to meet strategic needs include: early use of the Regular Component in a contingency; reliance on the Reserve Component for later-arriving forces; primacy of defeating an aggressor in major combat operations; capabilities for short-notice deployments; and the importance of readiness to deploy over cost considerations.
These principles will likely persist. Future technological factors will shape U. Army strategy, force structure, and planning decisions. Important technological changes that may decisively influence future U. Army force design include advances in information acquisition, processing, distribution, and utilization; capabilities for light, medium, and heavy forces; integrated air defense and protection; and changes to support and maintenance requirements for advanced systems.
Demands to reconfigure forces for a broad range of contingencies will not shrink in the foreseeable future. The overriding imperative for air deploy-ability will not change significantly. Like in the s, come-as-you-are wars are still likely, but these require reconceptualization in a Great Power context. There will continue to be missions and tasks that only Soldiers, Sailors, Marines, or Airmen can realistically accomplish.
Military power employment and military power integration and significantly different — the sum, integrated, is greater than the parts, acting independently. Missions and tasks of the future joint force will be assigned based on military necessity and objectives, and not based on predetermined formulas or a desire for equitability. Military affairs are evolving rapidly as events in Ukraine illustrate. Ballistic missiles, precision strikes, unmanned systems, space and cyberspace, and weapon of mass destruction technologies are spreading to various areas around the world.
The means and ways of warfare are changing. Battle space in the air, sea, space, and cyberspace domains, in which U. This contestation directly threatens U. Globalization creates both economic wealth and activity, along with security vulnerabilities. For many advanced economies, the range of security threats is expanding and becoming more varied. The twenty-first century is likely to see more so-called coalitions of the willing than formalized alliance structures like during World War Two.
It is not clear that traditional military forces and capabilities will still retain their value and utility. The unclassified summary of the National Defense Strategy NDS recognized a weakening, post international order. The NDS also called for increased strategic flexibility and freedom of action to manage a high volume of change.
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Apr 9, · By Adreon Patterson. published 9 April Fans of the Divergent trilogy have been wondering for years if Divergent 4 would happen. The film series producer Neil Burger along with the film. Simple. Fast. Powerful. The trading journal that will help improve your trading performance. Sign Up. May 11, · Forex Market Prediction Cycles with Divergence In , upon my visit to Ahmedabad, India, I met an Astrologer who shared some insights on his views on the financial markets. During our conversation he explained how the movement of planets in relative to the earth have impact on how life runs on a daily basis.